El Niño trará chuvas acima da média no Paraná até 2027
O fenômeno climático El Niño deve manter o volume de chuvas acima da média em todo o estado do Paraná até o mês de março de 2027, conforme apontado em um levantamento divulgado pelo Sistema de Tecnologia e Monitoramento Ambiental do estado (Simepar).
Impacto inicial e força do fenômeno Os efeitos mais intensos do aquecimento das águas oceânicas devem ocorrer durante os meses de novembro e dezembro, com maior incidência sobre as regiões centro, oeste e na faixa litorânea paranaense. A confirmação do padrão climático atual veio após análises de institutos internacionais que monitoram o clima global.
“A temperatura chegou a 2,5°C acima da média na região do Niño 3.4, área de referência para monitoramento do El Niño pela Administração Nacional Oceânica e Atmosférica Americana (NOAA). O aquecimento é consistente desde abril deste ano, e em junho foi confirmado que o fenômeno já estava ativo. Em outubro, ele já havia alcançado a categoria mais alta, e segue estabelecido como um El Niño muito forte”, explica o Simepar.
Previsão de tempestades severas Com o avanço do sistema, a previsão aponta para ocorrências de chuvas volumosas em curtos períodos, além de temporais acompanhados por vendavais, raios e queda de granizo em diversas cidades. Os impactos já foram registrados logo no início de novembro com ocorrências severas em vários municípios do estado.
“Em novembro, este impacto já foi claro: equipes do Simepar classificaram um tornado em Maringá e microexplosões atmosféricas em Curitiba, Piraquara, Pinhais, São José dos Pinhais, Araucária, Clevelândia e Tijucas do Sul, somente nos primeiros sete dias do mês”.
Volumes esperados por região No mês de novembro, as cidades situadas no Sudoeste paranaense podem acumular entre 320 mm e 360 mm de chuva, enquanto o Centro e o Oeste devem registrar marcas superiores a 240 mm. Em dezembro, o volume também cresce no Litoral, com marcas estimadas entre 220 mm e 240 mm. Já para o início de 2027, a tendência é de recuo gradual nos acumulados mensais em todo o território estadual.
Monitoramento e orientações Apesar das projeções climáticas indicarem uma alta probabilidade de eventos extremos, os especialistas reforçam que o acompanhamento diário continua essencial para prever tempestades localizadas, já que os efeitos exatos podem variar conforme a atuação de frentes frias e sistemas de baixa pressão.
“Mesmo os episódios mais intensos de El Niño não produzem necessariamente os mesmos impactos em todas as regiões. Entretanto, eventos mais fortes aumentam a probabilidade de ocorrência dos padrões climáticos normalmente associados ao fenômeno”, explica o Simepar.
Para garantir a segurança da população, a Defesa Civil mantém o envio de alertas 24 horas por dia. Os cidadãos podem se cadastrar gratuitamente para receber avisos preventivos enviando uma mensagem de texto com o CEP para o número 40199 ou registrando o contato oficial no WhatsApp.
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Imagem: Divulgação / Simepar
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